Clinton vs. Obama ... and McCain

The last few Democratic primaries are approaching. The convention is only a few months away. Yet the Dems have not chosen who they will nominate. Obama may have a majority of delegates, but Clinton has said that she will remain in the race as long as it takes, which means the convention in August. What does this mean for the Democratic Party?

There are 2 scenarios. One, the 2 potential Democratic candidates will continue the campaign of mud throwing accusations. There will be a winner… that looks really bad, dirty, with a reputation for negative campaigning. Meanwhile, McCain gets to run his campaign the way he likes, virtually unopposed by any united front. From now until August is McCain’s chance to accrue a lead so vast, that the eventual nominee cannot possibly catch up.

The other possibility plays out a little different. With Obama and Clinton still in contest for the nomination, they dominate the media (because lets face it, big nasty TV fights are good for ratings). All this free media attention drowns out McCain’s message and allows the Democrats to control the news stories up until the convention. There is some evidence that this could occur. According to open secrets, in April Obama raised $30,694,196 and Clinton raised $25,787,239 compared to McCain’s $18,310,686.

Those numbers amaze me. Together, the Democratic presidential candidates raked in $56,481,435, an amount more than 3 times what the Republican candidate raised. To me, this shows that the Barack vs. Hillary onslaught is drawing much more attention to the Democratic side, and leaving McCain far behind.

But Democrats should not go out celebrating just yet. With all the bitter feelings on both sides, the primary winner might very well alienate some of Democrats who supported their rival candidate. These people might not show up on Election Day, or worst case (for the Dems), they show up and vote McCain. McCain is exactly the right Republican for this to happen. His experience commands a great deal of respect. Enough to attract some of the Democratic supporters? We’ll see.